Indian Professor:

Re-imposing US sanctions on Iran to affect others more

New Delhi, Nov 6, IRNA - An Indian University scholar believes that the US decision to abandon the Iranian nuclear deal and to re-impose sanctions on the country will hurt the economies of many other countries more than Iran.

Dr. Geeta Kochhar who is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Chinese and South-East Asia Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi made the remarks while talking in an exclusive interview with the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) on the possible consequences of re-imposing of the US sanctions on Iran which started on November 4.

She said, “Iran’s oil exports are 2.5 million barrels per day. If the exports from Iran drop significantly, as is visible, the oil prices in the international market will shoot up. The price hike will make up for Iran, but will badly affect other economies. Strategically, Iran will not be a great looser as long as India and China continue to buy lower limits of oil, as there is no option that can fulfill the high demand. This is particularly seen from the case of Saudi Arabia that initially claimed to have made up for the shortages, but it was not in a position to fulfill the demands.”

Elaborating on the US’ international isolation over the Iranian nuclear deal, the seasoned analyst of the world affairs said, “Trump wants to curb Iran’s involvement in the region. The US thinks that by imposing economic and political pressures, it can force Iran to accept replacing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with a new deal, but except the US itself, no other signatory is supporting it. Even the EU and Japan are standing against the US, which is a significant development to consider for Iran.”

Rejecting possibility of Iran’s oil export to drop to zero at any time, she said, “Iran’s oil export will never drop to zero at any time, though, according to some reports, India has already agreed to cut its imports from Iran by 35% from last year (2017-2018). The US has agreed to grant India a waiver from Iran sanctions as the condition was that if a country agrees to drastically cut the import, US will have country-specific waivers.'

'I think, China will do the same, as already China is facing a trade war with the US and many in the political circle believe that China should change its posture. China will not outrightly support the US,' she added.

On the possibility of the US policies leading to a war in the Middle-East, Dr. Geeta Kochhar said, “It is globally considered that the US President Donald Trump is a very unproductive leader. Yet, in my personal opinion, I do not think that he will want to actively engage in a war. Although some of his policies are not conducive for the economic stability of many countries, but it does not necessarily mean that it will result in a war. The US should have advocated for peace and not unilaterally support one side, which has led to a greater chaos. The US decision to renounce the nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Iran will surely escalate tension in the Middle-East, but the rhetoric will soon tame down as the US will have to retreat from its position.”

On the possible impact of the US sanction on Iran on the strategically important Chabahar port project on the US’ own strategy to stabilize the economic and social situation in Afghanistan, the professor said, “India is taking certain pre-emptive measures as there is greater likelihood of the US sanctions affecting the Chabahar port project. I think the US has acted in a hasty manner by not strategically thinking of the interest of the Asian countries. What if India and China decide to go against the US threats, after all cooperation with the nearest neighbor is more significant than pleasing a far away power. The US will have to seriously think before imposing any sanction on the Chabahar port project as that will also not be in the interest of the US policy.”

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